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  • Florida ESF 18 Update - Tropical Storm Dorian

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    August 26, 2019

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    Good Afternoon Florida ESF 18 Partners,

    Please see the below tropics update from the FDEM State Meteorologist. We are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Dorian and encourage you to remain aware. Additional updates will be sent out as needed.

    This update is provided to you by ESF18: Business, Industry and Economic Stabilization

    esf18@em.myflorida.com

    www.FloridaDisaster.biz

     

     

    Tropical Storm Dorian

    • Tropical Storm Dorian continued to organize overnight with more persistent shower and thunderstorm activity and a more symmetric look. However, dry air continues to prevent rapid intensification.

    • As of the 11 AM ET advisory, maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph. Slow but steady strengthening is forecast to continue for the next couple of days. The tropical storm may become a hurricane Tuesday or Wednesday in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

    • Dorian is located about 135 miles east-southeast of Barbados and has now turned to the west-northwest at 14 mph. A turn to the northwest is expected by tomorrow.

    • Dorian should reach the Lesser Antilles later today and Puerto Rico/Dominican Republic sometime Wednesday.

    • This weekend, Dorian, or the remnants, will track near the Florida Peninsula. Small systems such as Dorian are more susceptible to surrounding atmospheric conditions, which could lead to significant fluctuations in the intensity and track forecast.

    • Any land interaction with Hispaniola is likely to significantly weaken the small system. For Dorian to be a threat to the Bahamas and Florida this weekend, it will need to avoid the mountainous islands, ingest little dry air, and fight off increasing wind shear in the Caribbean.

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    • Tropical Storm Dorian poses no threat to Florida over the next 5 days.

    • Florida is not currently in the cone or under any watches or warnings.

    • On the current most-likely forecast, land interaction and wind shear will weaken the system later this week.

    • To pose a significant threat to Florida, Dorian will need to reach the Bahamas with minimal land interaction with Puerto Rico, and more importantly, the Dominican Republic.

    • In addition, upper-level winds may become unfavorable for the small system in the Caribbean.

    • However, it should continue to be monitored for impacts over the Labor Day Weekend.

    • Given the unknown degree of interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is of very low confidence.