Florida ESF 18 Partners,
Attached is the latest brief from the SERT Meteorology Team on Tropical Depression Cristobal. Please note, a Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass (Gulf County) to Aripeka (Pasco/Hernando County Line). 2-4’ of storm surge is possible in these areas within the next 48 hours. 1-3’ of storm surge is possible outside of the watch area along the Gulf Coast, and Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed for these areas. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for Collier County.
If you have questions, or if we can support you in any way as you prepare for the potential impacts from Cristobal, please reach our team at ESF18@em.myflorida.com.
This update is provided to you by ESF 18: Business, Industry and Economic Stabilization.
Tropical Depression Cristobal
•As of 11 AM ET, the center of Cristobal is located over the Yucatan Peninsula, or about 620 miles southwest of Key West, FL, moving north at 12 mph.
•Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. Cristobal will likely re-strengthen to a tropical storm today or tonight once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico
•This weekend, the system will continue to move northward and will approach the northern Gulf Coast Sunday/Monday. Cristobal will also expand as it moves northward.
•Indirectly related to the system, tropical moisture will increase across the Gulf Coast today, keeping rain chances high.
•A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass (Gulf County) to Aripeka (Pasco/Hernando County Line). 2-4’ of storm surge is possible in these areas within the next 48 hours. 1-3’ of storm surge is possible outside of the watch area along the Gulf Coast, and Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed for these areas. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for Collier County.
•Storm Surge Watch: Gulf, Franklin, Wakulla, Jefferson, Taylor, Dixie, Levy, Citrus, and Hernando Counties
•A widespread 2-5” of rain is forecast to fall across the state over the next week. This will come from multiple rounds of rainfall over multiple days. Rain bands and training thunderstorms will result locally higher amounts, perhaps up to 6-12”.
•A primary rain band may set up across somewhere across North Florida with other rain bands elsewhere. This will create local maxima in rainfall totals and a flash flood threat.
•Gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will be possible in some of the rain bands.
•Isolated tornadoes may be possible in some of the outer bands, and the Storm Prediction Center has outlined coastal areas of the Panhandle in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) on Sunday.
•Dangerous rip currents and minor beach erosion are expected at Gulf Coast beaches.
The next briefing packet will be sent out this afternoon with the 5 PM ET advisory. For the latest information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov
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