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  • Florida Chamber May Political Situation Report

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    May 31, 2022
    May 31, 2022
    The Florida Chamber political team continuously analyzes new voter registration trends, changes to House and Senate districts, and voter behavior as we work to recruit and elect pro-jobs candidates to secure Florida's future. Please share this report with your management team and send us a note if you have questions, perspectives, or recommendations. Florida is at a crossroads and we invite you to help us save it.
    In This Issue:
    Florida: Behind the Numbers • Voter Registration Analysis • Did Florida Deserve Another Congressional District? • West Orange House Seats Poised to be Key Battleground Seats • Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy  Social Media Toolkit • Upcoming Events
    Florida: Behind the Numbers
    Sponsored by ChamberHub - the Florida Chamber's Exclusive Voter File
    Voter Registration Analysis
    Key Takeaways from the Voter File:
    Since the 2020 General Election...
    • The Democratic Party's share of active registered voters has declined in every county in Florida;
    • Republican Party share of active registered voters has increased in 53 of 67 counties;
    • NPA voter registration has increased in all of Florida's 67 counites.
    Did Florida Deserve Another Congressional District?
    Earlier this month, the US Census Bureau released its 2020 Post-Enumeration Survey, a follow-up to the 2020 Census that uses sampling data to estimate any over- or under-counting of a state's citizens that may have happened during the census process. The report indicated a number of larger than average miscounts may have taken place in both directions, including an under-counting of Florida's statewide population.
    The survey estimated an undercount of 3.48% in Florida during the 2020 Census, which would equate to there being nearly three-quarters of a million more Floridians than officially reported by the US Census Bureau. Florida was one of six states the survey indicated a statistically significant undercount in, along with Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. Eight states were identified as having statistically significant over-counts: Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Utah.
    Politically this difference would have resulted in Florida gaining two Congressional districts for the upcoming decade, instead of the one new Congressional seat our state received. However there is no procedure for the re-allocation of Congressional districts after the decennial Census even if this survey's estimates are proven correct by subsequent Census data, leaving Florida at 28 Congressional districts for the duration of the upcoming decade.
    West Orange House Districts Poised to be Key Battleground Seats
    The Big Picture: With the filing deadline for legislative candidates now just a couple weeks away, some of the key primary and general election races for 2022 are beginning to come into focus. One area likely to be at the forefront of both parties’ House campaign strategies is western Orange County, where two seats just west of Orlando are poised to be among Florida’s most competitive.
    In the new 39th Florida House district, comprised of northwestern Orange County plus a sliver of west Seminole County, both parties are currently set to have primary contests. As of now the Democratic primary is set to be a showdown between Tiffany Hughes and Luke Dowe, while Republicans are set to choose in a 3-man primary between Doug Bankson, Charles Hart, and Randy Ross. Candidates here will run in a new district drawn from portions of five separate House districts on the previous legislative map, primarily from areas that elected Reps. Kamia Brown and Keith Truenow in 2020.
    The winners of these primaries will square off in one of the most closely divided House districts in Florida. The 39th is a D+1 district on the Florida Partisan Performance Index and has been a key swing area of Florida, voters in the district narrowly preferring Gov. Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum in 2018 before narrowly backing Pres. Joe Biden over former Pres. Donald Trump in the 2020 general election.
    Directly south of the new 39th is another key race in determining the partisan balance of the Florida House, the contest for the new 45th district. The district is comprised of the southwestern corner of Orange County along with a sliver of northwestern Osceola County, with most of this new district falling within the lines of Rep. Geraldine Thompson’s old 44th district.
    Democrat Allie Braswell is currently the only candidate from his party to have filed to run in this district, and may end up advancing to the general election without a primary fight. This stands in stark contrast to the Republican primary lineup, where there is presently a 5-way fight for the party’s nomination in the 45th between candidates Carolina Amesty, Vennia Francois, Janet Frevola, Bruno Portigliatti and Mike Zhao. 
    Whichever Republican advances in the August primary will find themselves in a race that promises to be closely fought. The new 45th House district is a D+2 seat on the Florida Partisan Performance Index, an improvement for Republicans’ electoral prospects from the former 44th district that occupied much of this region on the former House map. 
    The fast growth of the greater Orlando region has made western Orange County one of the most notable regions of Florida to watch on recent election nights, and the 2022 election battlegrounds are shaping up for this region to once again play a prominent role in shaping Florida’s future.
    Gain Access or Interested in a Corporate Political Briefing?: Contact Nick Catroppo to schedule your customized corporate political briefing - an exclusive benefit for Florida Chamber Board of Governor members or get access to the newly updated Partisan Performance Index. 
    Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy
    The Florida Free Enterprise Fund 
    “The Florida Chamber of Commerce has been an early, vocal, and financial supporter of countless successful ballot initiatives, state legislators, and cabinet officials. The Chamber is constantly taking on public sector labor unions, extreme environmentalists, and trial lawyers who are working to undermine Florida’s business community. For decades, the Chamber has helped unite businesses throughout Florida by recruiting pro-jobs candidates and helping elect them to office.” - Tracy Duda Chapman, A. Duda & Sons, Inc.
    Join these companies as an early Free Enterprise Fund investor:
    The Florida Chamber Political Institute 
    The Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), the research-based arm of the Chamber’s political operations department, understands that the candidate selection process is vital. Our engagement efforts begin by recruiting and electing pro-business, pro-jobs candidates, chosen by rigorous candidate interview sessions — Florida’s most thorough and well-respected pro-business candidate review processes. FCPI travels statewide and interviews hundreds of new candidates — in addition to reviewing each candidate’s completed questionnaire. Incumbent candidates are evaluated on a rigorous set of factors, including the grade they earn on our annual legislative report card, How They Voted, which is based on their voting record on issues important to Florida businesses. This helps the Florida Chamber advocate for candidates who have Florida’s future as a priority.
    The Florida Institute for Political Leadership
    Florida needs good leaders who want to serve their local communities and run for public office.
    Across the State of Florida there are over 6,200 electable positions, and thousands of appointed officials, that make and shape policy for millions of Florida families and businesses. From local boards, city councils and county officials to the State Legislature, there is a growing need to ensure candidates running for office understand the issues facing Florida and our economic future.
    The Florida Institute for Political Leadership is Florida's preeminent non-partisan local campaign training school to recruit better candidates. Host a Candidate Training School in your community, nominate someone to run for office, or register for an upcoming school by contacting Andrew Wiggins.
    Upcoming Events, Engagement Opportunities and Important Dates
    Social Media Toolkit
    Are you interested in running for office to improve your local community? Join @theFIPL
    for a Free Online Campaign School to learn of local opportunities to run, how to prepare to run and how to run a winning campaign. Register for next month's school here: https://fipl.org/register/#FlaPol
    The @FlChamber endorses CFO @JimmyPatronis in his re-election bid to remain Florida’s Chief Financial Officer. Read the full press release here: https://bit.ly/3yAreFf #FlaPol #SecureFL #KeepFloridaFlorida
    The updated #Florida Partisan Performance Index has launched, which helps analyze the new FL #House and #Senate districts and measures how each district performs every election cycle. To access this @FlChamber political members only tool, click here: https://flchamber.com/ppi
    📢 To learn more, run for office, or help the Florida Chamber, please contact:
    Nick CatroppoVice President of Political Operations
    O: 850-521-1298 | C: 352-587-4122 | E:ncatroppo@flchamber.com
    Marian Johnson, Executive Director, Florida Chamber Political Institute
    C: 850-212-7073 | E: marianjohnson@flchamber.com
    Andrew WigginsSenior Director of Political Affairs and Coalition Advocacy
    O: 850-521-1240 | C: 850-251-3244 | E:awiggins@flchamber.com