• Florida ESF 18 Update - Tropical Depression Fred - 09/12/2021 - AM

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    August 12, 2021
    Good Morning Florida ESF 18 Partners,
    Attached is the latest update regarding Tropical Depression Fred.  We will continue to monitor and provide updates as they become available.
    Fred 3
    Tropical Depression Fred:
    • The center is Fred is located off the northeastern coast of Cuba, about 515 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
    • Fred currently has maximum sustained winds around 35 mph, but slow strengthening is expected over the next 72 hours.
    • Fred is moving west-northwest at 16 mph and this general motion will continue over the next few days. This weekend, a northwest turn is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
    • On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of Cuba today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and South Florida on Saturday.
    • A second landfall is expected along the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coast early Monday morning.
    Invest 95L
    • A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 1,400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression by early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical Atlantic near 20 mph.
    Florida Outlook:
    • Tropical Depression Fred will bring increased rain chances and gusty winds to South Florida on Friday and Saturday and other regions of the state this weekend and into early next week.
    • Much of Florida remains within the 5-day forecast cone for where the center of the storm is most likely to travel.
    • There are currently no tropical storm watches for Florida, but they are likely to be issued later this morning and this afternoon for portions of South Florida.
    • One of the main threats to Florida from Fred is heavy rainfall. A widespread 3-5” of rain with localized totals of 8” are anticipated across the Florida Keys and South Florida (generally south of Lake Okeechobee).
    • The heavy rain threat will extend northward along the Nature Coast and Florida Big Bend later in the weekend.
    • Widespread minor to moderate river flooding will continue this week in Northeast Florida. Heavy rainfall may continue or worsen flooding.
    • Isolated tornadoes are also possible in South Florida and the Keys on Friday and Saturday.
    • It is too early to determine storm surge impacts, but is anticipated to be minimal at this time for South Florida. A more minor to moderate threat may exist for portions of Apalachee Bay.
    Another briefing packet will be issued this afternoon with the 5pm advisory. For the latest information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov.
    This update is provided to you by ESF 18: Business, Industry and Economic Stabilization