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  • Florida ESF 18 Update - Tropical Storm Fred

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    August 11, 2021
    SERT_Header
    Good Morning Florida ESF 18 Partners,
    A potential tropical cyclone formed into Tropical Storm Fred last night.  Fred is currently about 880 miles southeast of Florida.  The Florida State Emergency Response Team will continue to monitor the storm and provide updates as they become available.
    Now is a good time to review and update your business continuity plans.  A Disaster Planning Toolkit is available for businesses at www.FloridaDisaster.biz.  
    Fred
    Tropical Storm Fred (Formerly Potential Tropical Cyclone Six)
    • Potential Tropical Cyclone Six developed a closed circulation overnight and was designated Tropical Storm Fred.
    • The center is Fred is located about 50 miles southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, or about 880 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
    • Fred currently has maximum sustained winds around 40 mph. It will move over Hispaniola and weaken today due to the mountainous terrain.
    • Fred is moving west-northwest at 16 mph and this general motion will continue over the next few days.
    • No major changes to the track or intensity forecast overnight.
    • On Thursday, Fred will move over Cuba or just offshore and will gradually reorganize as it approaches South Florida on Friday. This weekend, a northward turn is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is possible in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to near hurricane strength.
    Invest 95L
    • A tropical wave located over 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it continues west to west-northwest.
    • NHC has the odds of development 20% (low) over the next 48 hours and 40% (medium) over the next 5 days.
    Florida Outlook:
    • Tropical Storm Fred will bring increased rain chances and gusty winds to South Florida on Friday and Saturday and other regions of the state this weekend and into early next week.
    • The entire state is in the 5-day forecast cone for where the center of the storm is most likely to travel.
    • It is too early to determine any other impacts to the state!!
    • Some wind, surge, and tornado impacts are possible along the Gulf Coast, particularly in the Panhandle/Big Bend if the system remains over the Gulf of Mexico far enough off the West Coast of Florida.
    • Widespread minor to moderate river flooding will continue this week in Northeast Florida. Heavy rainfall may continue or worsen flooding.
     
    Another briefing packet will be issued this afternoon with the 5pm advisory. For the latest information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov.