• Florida ESF 18 Update - Tropical Storm Fred - 09/11/2021

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    August 11, 2021
    Good Afternoon Florida ESF 18 Partners,
    Attached is the latest update regarding Tropical Storm Fred.  We will continue to monitor the storm and provide updates as they become available.
    Tropical Storm Fred (Formerly Potential Tropical Cyclone Six)
    • The center is Fred is located over the Dominican Republic, or about 750 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
    • Fred made landfall in the Dominican Republic around 2 PM ET today.
    • Fred currently has maximum sustained winds around 40 mph. It will weaken tonight as it moves over the mountains of Hispaniola.
    • Fred is moving west-northwest at 15 mph and this general motion will continue over the next few days. This weekend, a northward turn is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
    • On Thursday & Friday, Fred will move over Cuba or just offshore and will gradually reorganize as it approaches South Florida. The less/more interaction the storm has with Cuba and the Florida Peninsula, the stronger/weaker the winds will be.
    • No major changes to the track or intensity today.
    Invest 95L
    • A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
    • Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical Atlantic near 20 mph.
    • NHC has the odds of development at 30% (low chance) over the next 48 hours and 50% (medium chance) over the next 5 days.
    Florida Outlook:
    • Tropical Storm Fred will bring increased rain chances and gusty winds to South Florida on Friday and Saturday and other regions of the state this weekend and into early next week.
    • The entire state is in the 5-day forecast cone for where the center of the storm is most likely to travel.
    • A widespread 3-5” of rain with localized totals of 8” are anticipate across the Florida Keys and South Florida (generally south of Lake Okeechobee).
    • Isolated tornadoes are also possible in South Florida and the Keys on Friday and Saturday. Storm surge is anticipated to be minimal at this time.
    • It is too early to determine exact impacts to other regions of the state!!
    • Some wind, surge, and tornado impacts are possible along the Gulf Coast, particularly in the Panhandle/Big Bend if the system remains over the Gulf of Mexico far enough off the West Coast of Florida.
    • Widespread minor to moderate river flooding will continue this week in Northeast Florida. Heavy rainfall may continue or worsen flooding.
    For the latest information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov.
    This update is provided to you by ESF 18: Business, Industry and Economic Stabilization